seth doane is in jersey city tonight. seth? >> reporter: good evening, anthony, retailers can make as much as 10% of their holiday profit this is weekend. that's why they've made shopping easier and earlier than ever. black friday is usually a contact sport but this year an estimated 41 million people started shopping on thursday, making for a more civilized form of chaos target opened thanksgiving evening but carolyn shin went this morning to kick off the second shift. >> we avoid the crazy lines. we're not the midnight people, we're the 6:30 a.m. people. so we're in between the craziness and the fun. >> reporter: holiday sales are expected to increase 4% this year. a smaller gain than last season's 5.6%. toys "r" us c.e.o. jerry storch told us the calendar works in retailers' favor this year. it's the longest possible number of days between thanksgiving and christmas. >> this store is teeming with people who are excited to be here. it's a celebratory atmosphere, actually, and it's also -- it's okay. it's also just an incredib